CNN-IBN-The Week-CSDS Post Poll Survey for Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam

Tamil Nadu:

Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK alliance moves ahead of DMK+ in Tamil Nadu; likely to secure majority

The CNN IBN-The Week-CSDS Post Poll survey suggests AIADMK supremo Jayalalithaa may have pipped the DMK alliance in the race for the assembly. Her alliance is likely to secure a majority by bagging between 120 and 132 seats in 234 seat assembly. The DMK alliance is projected to end up with a seat tally between 102 and 114 seats.

Even in individual popularity ratings, the post poll survey establishes Jayalalithaa for the first time has moved ahead of K Karunanidhi in individual popularity ratings and she has taken a five per cent lead over the DMK patriarch.

The survey suggests Jayalalithaa’s alliance with Vijayakanth seems to be have helped her draw the young voters to her fold across the state with the DMK losing voters across age groups across the state.

Ironically, while the voters appeared satisfies with the governance, the survey suggests perceptions of corruption and nepotism has hurt the DMK in its campaign.

Seat Projections for Tamil Nadu

DMK+	102-114
ADMK+	120-132

Vote shares

	2006 (Actual)	2011 (Estimate)
DMK+	45	44
ADMK+	40	46
BJP Front	2	3
Others	13	7

ADMK+ leading and gaining among women voters

	DMK+		ADMK+
	2006	2011	2006	2011
Men	48	45	38	45
Women	46	43	44	48

AIADMK+ doing well among younger voters

	DMK+		ADMK+
	2006	2011	2006	2011
18- 25 yrs	42	40	38	49
26-35years	45	45	40	45

Assam:

Congress likely to return to power in Assam; Gogoi remains preferred choice for chief minister’s job

The CNN IBN-The Week-CSDS Post Poll survey suggests the Tarun Gogoi led Congress is set to come back to power in the state with their seat tally likely to be between 64 and 72 seats in the 126 seat assembly. Tarun Gogoi was the most preferred choice for the chief minister’s post even as about 63 per cent people saying they were satisfied with the government’s performance in the state.

Interestingly, 51 per cent of the respondents said they believed the government had succeeded in reducing the insurgency problem even as 65 per cent said development has improved in the last five years.

Vote-shares

	2006 (Actual)	2011 (Estimate)
Congress	31	36
BJP	12	9
AGP	20	18
AIUDF	9	13
Others	28	24

Who would you prefer as the next Chief Minister of Assam?

	2011
Tarun Gogoi	37
Brindaban Goswami	3
Prafulla Kumar Mahanta	8
Himanata Biswa Sharma	5
Badruddin Ajmal	8
Chandramohan Patowary	4

Tarun Gogoi’s popularity over the years

	2001	2004	2006	2011
Those wanting him as CM	20	37	32	37

Has the Cong govt succeeded in reducing the insurgency problem?

	%
Yes	51
No	22
Can’t say	27

Do you think overall development of the state over the last five years have improved or deteriorated?

Development has…	%
Improved	65
Deteriorated	19