The CNN-IBN-The Week post-poll surveys conducted by the CSDS reveal surprising trends among voters in all four states.

West Bengal: TMC+Congress: 222-234 seats. Left Front: 60-72.

Tamil Nadu: AIADMK alliance: 120-132 seats. DMK alliance: 102-114.

Kerala: LDF: 69-77 seats. UDF: 63-71.

Assam: Congress: 64-72 seats. AGP: 16-22. AUDF: 11-17. BJP: 7-11.

A perfect antidote to hubris, democracy cures not just the arrogance of power, it also serves to mitigate the certitudes of intellect. Like politicians, elections are the one moment when political analysts must submit their reading, their projections, their grand designs to the test of ordinary citizen. As in the case of politicians, this can be an humbling experience for those in the business of analyzing politics.

If the CNN-IBN-The Week post-poll surveys conducted by the CSDS are anything to go by, the current round of assembly elections holds many lessons for national and local analysts of politics. These surveys of three to five thousand electors in each of the four states that went to polls recently throw up indicators that defy established political common sense.

This common sense had suggested that the UDF’s victory in Kerala was a forgone conclusion, while Assam was bound to witness a hung assembly with no party anywhere close to the majority mark. Also that Mamata Banerjee held an edge in West Bengal, but the Left Front had staged a partial recovery since the debacle in 2009. And that Tamil Nadu was a thriller, but political analysts expected things to swing decisively in favour of the AIADMK by polling day.

Assam